NIGERIA has never been this on the edge, the way it was in 1993. Never has the country been so politically divided along ethnic and religious lines. How did we get to this frightening state?
Following the overthrow of the Shehu Shagari government in 1983 by General Muhamadu Buhari, we had ten long years of military rule before the annulled June 12 election. The build-up to that election, contested by two popular national political parties, the NRC and SDP, saw three Northern candidates- General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, Mallam Adamu Ciroma, and Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, among others, summarily disqualified and taken into detention.In that circumstance, while it may be convenient to characterise the June 12, 1993 election as the freest and fairest, behind that facade rested deep tribal resentment, mostly from the North of what had occurred. In parts of the country, mainly in the South-West, protesters not necessarily confined to the leadership of the SDP, found the Abiola cause a convenient platform on which to organise overt resistance. In the midst of this, restiveness erupted among Southern minority elements, particularly in the Niger-Delta area, mostly for reasons of apparent grievances. They commenced challenging what they described as a reckless plundering of the natural resources of their native soil – oil.
The coincidence of the sudden deaths of General Abacha and Chief Abiola did not put the firestorms sparked by these crises to rest. The emergence of General Obasanjo on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999 by virtue of an arrangement conceived and executed by his top military colleagues did not really fulfill the intention of the inventors to assuage the anger of the South-West whose leading political figures distanced themselves from Obasanjo’s candidature.
Unfortunately, the OBJ personal agenda which included a plot to position himself for an indefinite presidential reign, rather than work to unite the country, created massive assault on the peace and orderly progress of the new democratic structure. OBJ was virtually forced out of office. He departed with vengeance; ceding powers to an ailing successor, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua from Northern Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan assumed the presidency in the midst of escalating unrest and crisis in his indigenous area, the Niger-Delta.
Simultaneously, parts of Northern Nigeria were gradually being crisscrossed by Muslim fundamentalist who took advantage of Nigeria’s extensive, porous borders with neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The sectarian crises in North Africa and parts of the Middle East started sipping through to Nigeria.
Although, President Jonathan successfully brought the Niger-Delta crises to an end, political fortune hunters as well as mischief makers inside and outside the PDP invoked the tribal card as a means of challenging the president’s legitimate second term bid.
In the circumstance, the genuine effort by some of us to unite the opposition in order to produce a strong alternative political platform which ensures a balanced polity with adequate checks and balances was suddenly hijacked by a crop of desperate political contractors.
What can be done to whittle down tension in the polity and send a signal that this election is not a do or die affair?
The nation is currently gripped in the reality of the struggle for the presidency. This has generated a certain heat of its own. Otherwise, tension in the polity, which is basically the product of intra-party differences, has been simmering all along. That was not an end-product of the quest for the presidency. The lack of consolidated internal party democracy is the bane of all parties in varying degrees of complexities. Party primaries, conducted by the leading political parties have not been the best examples, coupled with the ineffective monitoring by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The PDP despite its long tenure as the party in power has suffered fundamental stress emanating not only from sudden adjustments to its national leadership changes but also to the loss of cohesion in the ranks of its governors. A number of governors who left the party are now engaged in survival battles. Similarly, the APC, recently born out of a successful amalgamation of major opposition parties has not been able to retain its appeal or freshness following the hijack of its leadership by some desperate individuals as well as its final contamination by the influx of break-away PDP Governors.
While those who lost out in their party primaries are gradually coming to terms with the reality, only the prospects of a free and fair election conducted by an unbiased umpire can bring down the tension. Nigeria is a vast and vibrant nation and with the rather high stakes in the 2015 elections, the crucial role of the media no longer rests with the print media alone but also the electronic media- radio and television as well as an increasingly viral social media.
With the proliferation of smart phones in the country, estimated at about one hundred million in Nigeria, the social media has emerged as a key factor in moulding the disposition of our people. Therefore, moderating the dissemination of volatile materials will help in bringing down the tension. The peace pact recently signed by the presidential candidates, as well as some governorship candidates in some states seem to be a mere public relations exercise as the frequency of its breach by some elements make nonsense of the high-profile launches.
The latest bid for the presidency by the North, at the same time President Jonathan seeks a second term appears to have ruptured the North/South-South political friendship that dates back to the First Republic. What went wrong?
In October 1963, Nigeria proclaimed itself a Republic. Parliamentary elections were held in the country in December, 1964. The election saw most parties run as part of alliances. The Nigerian National Alliance (NNA) was led by the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) whose national stature was only guaranteed by a formation that included Southern minority parties. These were the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP), The Midwest Democratic Front (MDF), The Dynamic Party (DP) and The Niger- Delta Congress (NDC) led by Chief Harold Biriye.
Biriye led some Southern minority leaders principally from Degema, Ogoni, Brass and Western Ijaw divisions. The friendship between Southern minorities and Northern Nigeria was bolstered by the role of Melford Okilo of the NDC, who was appointed parliamentary secretary by Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa. Okilo later became leader of the then National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in Rivers State. He was elected governor in 1979. He mobilised the region to support the emergence of Shagari as the NPN presidential candidate and later as president.
This record speaks eloquently of a long standing friendship between the South-South, particularly Southern minorities and Northern Nigeria. Nigeria celebrated one hundred years of the amalgamation of Northern and Southern Nigeria last year, but since Independence and the political party elections from 1963, the struggle for ultimate leadership of the country between the North and the South has remained a hard nut to crack. The situation has been complicated not only by the multiplicity of ethnic groups on both sides but the emergence of Islam as the dominant religion in Northern Nigeria and Christianity as that of Southern Nigeria.
The formation of alliances has been one way of ensuring that a balance is retained. However, the PDP that has retained power over the past sixteen years operates a system of rotating the presidency between the North and South on a two term, eight-year basis. This arrangement never envisaged a president dying in office. So the death of President Yar’Adua after two years in office has presented controversies with regards to putting back on track, the rotation principle.
I’m sure the North would certainly be comfortable with the South-South as a long standing ally. In the circumstance, it would make for national peace for President Jonathan from the South-South to complete his two terms so that the presidency may revert to the North in 2019, when hopefully, they will field a healthy nationally acceptable candidate.
This is the first time in Nigeria’s history that the opposition would be so organised so much that the re-election of the incumbent is severely threatened. What do you make of this scenario?
This claim has turned out now to be more apparent than real, and is indeed not an accurate portrayal of the history of strong opposition organisation in the political history of Nigeria.
In the late 60s, two major parties; UPGA and NNA emerged from the amalgamation of political parties with similar ideological tendencies. The NNA was made up of the NPC and the NNDP. On the other hand, the other party, which was in opposition, the UPGA was an amalgamation of NCNC, AG, NEPU and the UMBC. In the Second Republic, although the NPN was the ascendant party, the UPN was a formidable opposition party that was hobbled by its narrow sectional base. The Third Republic featured the SDP and the NRC as the two formidable political parties. I was honored to serve as the pioneer chairman of the NRC.
I’ve always desired a balanced polity in which the opposition is strong enough to be an alternative platform ready to assume the role of government. This would assure effective checks and balances in the polity. My experience in the days of SDP/NRC gave me remarkable insight into this option. I eagerly pursued, with some dedicated colleagues, the creation of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The entry of the APC into the nation’s political firmament was received across the nation and beyond with great joy and happiness. We proclaimed a new party with a clarion call of change as we strongly believed that we had created a party that would pursue democratic principles with an emphatic culture of internal democracy.
For me, I thought we had finally broken loose, the shackles of tribal, regional and religious politics unlike the NNA of the 60s that was founded on the premise of securing power through a coalition of fundamentally ethnic-based parties, involving the intrinsically “North for Northerners” Hausa-dominated NPC and the essentially schismatic Yoruba party, the NNDP. That assumption which seemed feasible under the regionalist Independence constitution was that this sectionalist alliance as a formidable political party would win federal power.
Those who hijacked the APC dwelt on that erroneous assumption based on the archaic 1960 theory that a Yoruba South-West and a Hausa-Fulani North-West alliance will produce electoral victory. APC’s democratic credentials were put to test at its very first convention where the self-styled “leader of the party” successfully plotted and executed the installation of cronies as the party’s National Executive. In a desperate effort to build a team that was solely designed to unseat President Jonathan, PDP break-away governors were recruited to pollute the leadership of the party.
It should be noted, as it is already evident, that the assumption of automatic and unanimous votes from the two zones, the North-West and South-West for the APC is not realisable. Today, the hold of the APC and its leadership over the South-West has been seriously dented in states such as Ekiti and Ondo. Its hold has crashed in Ogun due to the soaring profile of the SDP and PDP in that state. In Oyo, due to the PDP and ACCORD, while in Lagos, a major breakthrough has been secured by the PDP not only because of the diverse nature of the electorate and the charismatic PDP governorship candidate - Jimi Agbaje but also, the total rejection of the Lion of Bourdillon. President Jonathan has an airtight support in the South-South and the South-East, where Buhari would not even secure the mandatory 25 per cent. President Jonathan will secure more than 60 per cent of the votes in the North-Central and not less than 50% in the North-East and the North-West. His return for a second term is assured.
Opinions are divided on the security reason adduced for shifting the polls initially, with many blaming the government. Aside that, it also appeared INEC wasn’t ready then. What do you think?
While various opinions being peddled around speculated on the rationale for shifting the polls, the compelling facts that eventually rendered February 14 unsuitable were simply the obvious security situation and INEC’s unpreparedness. Both reasons were valid. Security in the North-Eastern States of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe as at early February was such that if elections had held then, large numbers of Nigerians would have been disenfranchised.
In this context, whichever party had lost could use the fact of low voter participation to generate interminable post-election crisis which the country does not need. Conducting elections in those states with swathes of territories still disrupted by Boko Haram would have been a very daring undertaking which definitely was not in the interest of electoral personnel.
Therefore, the decision to shift the election dates as well as vigorously address the security situation has achieved two objectives. First, was to demonstrate President Jonathan’s determination to enfranchise voters wherever they may be located. This is significant because some of these areas are assumed to be opposition zones. Secondly, the decisive, speedy and stunning victories of the Nigerian Forces have resulted in the liberation of virtually all of the North-Eastern territories previously under the subjection of Boko Haram. This automatically provides the opportunity for voters in these areas to exercise their franchise. That would not have been possible had the elections held in February.
With regards to INEC, I find it very strange that INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, failed to disclose to the public the actual reasons he postponed the elections. In his presentation to the Council of State few days before he made the postponement announcement, he had admitted that a number of critical elements for free, fair and credible elections were not yet in place.
As of 7th February, the date of his world press conference, of the 68.8 million Nigerians registered to vote, only 45.8 million had collected their permanent voters cards (PVCs). This meant that a total of 23 million (33.8%) registered voters had not yet collected theirs. It was obvious that it was not logistically possible for INEC to complete the distribution of the said 23 million cards in the one week left before the election. If INEC had proceeded with elections on the 14th of February, 23 million registered voters would have been disenfranchised.
The skewed distribution of cards affected states that were not necessarily PDP States. For example, in Lagos, a major cosmopolitan state, only 38.4% of the 5.9 million registered voters had as at then received their PVCs. A similar case existed in Ogun State where only 36.44% of the registered voters had received theirs as at 4th February, 2015 - ten days to the elections. Furthermore, the statistics presented on the distribution of PVC defy logic. It was observed that states such as Borno, Yobe and Adamawa where insurgency had presented the most serious challenges leading to mass displacement of persons, some of whom resided in IDP camps or have left their states, had PVC collection rates unusually high, even compared to states like Enugu, where there was no crisis.
The issue of card readers which INEC proposed to use is a new device based on a new technology that had never been demonstrated or tested in situ in any Nigerian locality or in previous elections. The first tests only recently carried out three weeks after the 14th of February has recorded massive failure. For unknown reasons, Professor Jega is determined to throw Nigeria into unprecedented confusion with this ill-designed contraption otherwise referred to as Card Readers on 28th March. God help us!
Can you rate the chances of President Jonathan and General Buhari? Who do you think will emerge winner?
I believe President Jonathan has a strong chance of winning the election. I’m now firmly convinced that, in fact, he will win resoundingly. This is based on the strength of rousing public awareness that has woken to his spectacular accomplishments under his Transformation Agenda, covering several strategic spheres, including education, agriculture, aviation, roads and railway. Industries such as Motor vehicle manufacturing, power and the economy have picked up. He as President is leader of a broad based party which is not owned by any individual but a party that is rooted across the entire nation. President Jonathan; educated to PhD level is of the prevailing generation and in sync with a new Nigeria.
General Buhari, contesting the presidency for the fourth time was in office as Head of State some 32 years ago, when he dethroned the democratically elected government of President Shagari. He is remembered as the ruthless military leader who seized power and would not entertain discussions on plans to return the country to civil rule.
Politicians remember him; how aggressively he hunted down key politicians across the length and breadth of the country. This hunt was selective as he manipulated the escape of selected tribal friends. He was the author of the infamous Decree 4, an instrument used to muzzle the press. Tunde Thompson and Nduka Irabo, among others, were imprisoned. Death sentences were recklessly passed on hapless civilians through the instrumentality of a hurriedly enacted Decree that was back dated!
Pleas for mercy from within and outside Nigeria on some of the condemned civilians including a woman were ignored. He ordered the selective trial of politicians for alleged corruption, slamming ridiculous jail sentences, some up to hundreds of years, on some from a part of the country. He has failed to make the presidency three times. After the 2011 elections, he wept publicly, announcing that he was not going to present himself again.
It is true that over the past 16 years, he has managed to acquire a good crowd of die-hard followers from a number of his homeland constituencies. Political contractors from Southern Nigeria, particularly from a South-West state, cashing in on the North-South political rivalry; the religious issue and insecurity in North-Eastern Nigeria have virtually recruited the General, persuading him to recant on his 2011 proclamation. These political contractors see Buhari’s candidature as the convenient route for them to grab Nigeria.
Those parading General Buhari, singing the song of change have now been challenged by many to define the change they are talking about and whether they are talking of moving Nigeria from the digital age of today back to the analogue age of 1983. The media is now awash with the Transformation projects already executed by President Jonathan and many are arguing that those successful projects are indeed the change that you can see.
The GMB handlers who advised the General to steer clear of an open debate with President Jonathan have tried hard to formulate a platform for their man, creating a false image of him as an anti-corruption man of integrity. This is pure balderdash! My first assignment as Adviser to government in 1994/95 was to prepare the memo on which basis the PTF - Petroleum Trust Fund was created. As chairman of this juicy portfolio over which the General enjoyed unfettered control, the PTF was funded with a total of around N180 billion between 1994 and 1999. The General failed to curb stinking corruption in the organisation but authorised more than 70 per cent of the funds to be spent on his own part of the country.
An Interim Management Committee, headed by his own kinsman, Haroun Adamu, discovered that over N25 billion was stolen under the General’s watch. I suppose this fact is recorded in OBJ’s book, My Watch, since he set up the Adamu committee. GMB cannot claim to be an example of anti-corruption as there are too many situations in which he is involved which contradicts such claim.
As Federal Commissioner for Petroleum Resources, it was discovered that $2.8 billion of Nigeria’s oil money was withdrawn from the Midland Bank, London and the funds lodged into an account in a dubious bank BCCI (Bank of Credit and Commerce International) where it generated interest amounting (then) to over 400 million pounds. The money later vanished into private pockets. The entire anti-corruption and Integrity campaign has collapsed and the final nail on the coffin of that campaign was the airing of Lion of Bourdillon.
As for the issue of security, as it pertains to the menace of Boko Haram ravaging the North-East, it is now clear who really were supporters of the Muslim fundamentalist attacks on Nigeria but mischievously turned around to blame President Jonathan. President Jonathan was left to equip a Military- Army, Air Force and Navy overnight. He has done a yeoman’s job with the insurgents virtually routed from Nigerian soil in the past four weeks.
The overwhelming opinion across the country this timehas thus, swung in favour of President Jonathan, as it is obvious that the overall peace and stability of Nigeria will be guaranteed by his re-election.
Do you regret leaving the APC, which has today become the most formidable opposition ever to the ruling PDP?
It was an experience of great joy and satisfaction for me to host and lead the process that gave birth, in February 2013, at my Abuja residence, the APC with the successful unification of the major opposition parties- ACN, ANPP, CPC and a part of APGA.
Several failed attempts had been made by various people since 1999, to strengthen the opposition by uniting a number of the opposition parties. This had not been successful for a number of reasons, prominent among which was always personal interest and ambition. Consequently, most well known leaders particularly in the ranks of the former ACN never thought it would be possible to achieve the unification. As soon as it became apparent that we would succeed, a number of them, notably the party’s currently proclaimed leader moved in to seize control of the party and has since employed every means to retain hold.
It became clear to me that a sinister agenda was brewing as the main objective of the new party. This included a plot hatched to install General Buhari as president with Bola Tinubu as vice-president, notwithstanding the facts that both men are Muslims who possess stunningly negative credentials. Most of my colleagues in the leadership of the party also became aware of this trend. They merely grumbled about it but seemed unable to muster the courage to openly fight it.
The first National Convention was an abysmal failure. The event was a mere charade at which a cabal succeeded in installing a group of cronies as the party’s National Executive. Core leaders of the legacy parties found themselves trapped in this arrangement, which turned out to be the construction of a framework dedicated to just one objective, which was to bring down President Jonathan and install General Buhari and Tinubu. Notwithstanding, Tinubu’s failure to make their ticket recently for this election, I am convinced that Professor Osinbajo has only been brought in as a stepping-stone and much has been spoken about this already. I observed negotiations between ACN and CPC in 2011 at which Tinubu insisted that Pastor Bakare who was already picked as running mate by CPC should provide an undated letter of resignation as vice president. The Pastor refused and so negotiations broke down.
My quest for an alternative political platform in the country was not motivated towards fulfilling any personal ambition to contest for executive power but I hold firmly that it is in the best interest of our country to have a credible structure of two strong political parties that would guarantee the necessary checks and balances in the system. Notwithstanding the negative trends exhibited by the APC at this time, I believe a robust political contest has at last arrived. But this is not the time to cede government to a desperate upstart commanding a vengeful army of flatterers, all with a mission of stampeding an illusory enemy.
I have no regrets at all, leaving the APC as I’ve always viewed a political party as a congregation of like-minded persons who become welded together in a close-knit brotherhood in a manner beyond mere friendship. I find the APC now a collection of strange bedfellows of very ambitious people of diverse interests all constantly plotting against each other.
Source: Tribune